I was talking with a colleague (Dr Margot Kaszap) last Friday about the upcoming crisis in education. She is a researcher in education science at my home university (Laval University in Quebec City). It was obvious that she sees the crisis coming in education the same way I do, which is reassuring to me. Most colleagues seem to have their heads firmly buried in the sand, convinced that life will go on as it always has, the universities along with it, and their jobs and livelihoods are assured for a career lifetime (i.e. the next thirty years). Those of us who are concerned see change coming down the tracks with the speed of a bullet train, on a collision course with the current organization of most educational institutes, and that our current career positions may not survive the coming decade.
It is not just the reorganization that results from the internet that is at the root of this coming change, the so-called "flattening of the world", to use Thomas Friedman's terminology. Dr. Kaszap points out that the generation of children that grew up with the internet is only a few years shy of entering our universities, and this cohort of students will require radical change in the way education is offered. This is a consequence of the flattening effect Friedman describes, albeit across a twenty-year time span.
Now, it is true that universities are changing. They are increasingly developing on-line curriculae, although there is still much discussion and controversy around this among university teachers. However, the majority of on-line courses are still structured as they were before they went on-line. For students who grew up with traditional classroom organization, this is still acceptable, but this will change over the next few years.
There are two likely sources of competition for university-level training currently emerging within the global community - private businesses that deliver training and what one might call "open source classrooms", that is, freely available learning materials accessible via the web. Sometimes the latter are developed by university-level professors and teachers who are rebellious with regard to the institutional mentality of attempting to control access to pedagogical content. As more sophisticated development tools become available via the web, for example, to build dynamic 3D virtual environments, the ability to "package" learning materials into kinaesthetically engaged interactive experiences will evolve and democratize.
Learning is becoming one of the primary preoccupations of all members of society - whether this learning be technical, social or communal, professional or just for the sheer pleasure of it. Learning opportunities are developing by leaps and bounds, and learning environments and methods are diversifying as the public becomes more engaged in the process. For example, I take part in an "Open Source Sewing" community, ( the Burda Style community), created in 2007 and which recently topped 100 000 members. This community is sharing learning tools for sewing, pattern creation and use, and fashion design. Today, you can sign on for a course in sewing, go to fashion design school... or join an online learning community and figure it out on your own. There are growing numbers of people doing precisely this.
Likewise, an industry is emerging for offering training and education in parallel to the university system. Some of this arises from perceptions that university-trained students may not have the right preparation to enter the highly volatile work environment, others from the need to offer learning materials in more flexible ways than universities provide. Businesses that offer training will mix both on-line materials with hands-on learning. Universities, on the other hand, are struggling to develop training programs targeted towards professional diplomas that serve better the needs of the work environment. However, the nature of work itself is also changing, making the development of stable training programs even more difficult. Universities for the most part are fairly conservative organizations with a great deal of inertia - their ability to offer learning materials that must change, adapt and evolve to a constantly shifting work environment is limited.
Changing demographics is also affecting higher education. As the birth rate drops throughout the world (the change in population dynamics discussed elsewhere in this blog), newcomers to the education system shift from young people to the elderly and to the immigrant populations, which are both on the rise.
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